Markets: from the result to goals, corners and cards

A market is a question

Every market is one question about the match. The model answers it with a probability, that gives fair odds, and against the bookmaker's odds it gives value. The procedure is identical for every market; only the question changes.

Why not stop at the result

The match result is the most-watched market, so it carries the most money and its odds tend to be the sharpest. Room between the odds and fair value is harder to find there than anywhere else.

Markets like corners or cards are followed by fewer people and their odds tend to be coarser — which is exactly where value shows up more often. It's a trade, though, not a free win: a smaller market also means a smaller sample of data, and its numbers swing more.

The line is part of the tip

"Over 2.5 goals" and "Over 3.5 goals" are two completely different tips, even on the same match. That's why the line is always written into the tip's name, and why two entries from the same fixture can behave in opposite directions.